The Indian Rupee (INR) remains under pressure against the US Dollar (USD) during Friday’s afternoon trading session in India. The USD/INR pair stays elevated near the 91.20 level as the domestic equity market continues to struggle in attracting strong foreign capital inflows.
Data released by the National Stock Exchange (NSE) shows that overseas participation in Indian equities has remained inconsistent despite the trade agreement announced between India and the United States earlier in February. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have purchased shares worth around ₹895.58 crore so far this month — a relatively small amount compared to the heavy outflows recorded over the past several months.
On February 2, both countries acknowledged the new trade framework announced by US President Donald Trump, under which tariffs on certain Indian imports into the US were reduced to 18% from the earlier 50% level that included punitive duties.
The Rupee has also failed to benefit from easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Oman’s Foreign Minister Badr al-Busaidi recently indicated that nuclear negotiations between the US and Iran have made significant progress and are expected to resume in Vienna next week. However, the lack of a meaningful decline in crude oil prices has prevented any major support for the Indian currency.
At the time of writing, WTI crude oil trades slightly lower near $65.25 per barrel. Since India depends heavily on imported crude oil to meet its energy requirements, fluctuations in oil prices directly impact the Rupee’s valuation.
Domestically, market participants are awaiting the release of India’s Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data scheduled for 4:00 PM IST. Economists expect annual growth of around 7.2%, slower than the 8.2% expansion recorded in the third quarter of 2025.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar is trading in a narrow range and is likely to end the week broadly stable following recent tariff-related developments. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the Greenback against major currencies, hovers near 97.70.
Earlier this week, the US administration announced 10% global tariffs, with the possibility of increasing them to 15% for certain countries. These measures were introduced to counter the economic impact of a Supreme Court ruling that challenged previous tariff policies.
Regarding monetary policy, markets largely expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged in its March and April meetings, according to CME Fed Watch projections. Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target has encouraged policymakers to remain cautious.
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee also suggested that rate cuts may occur later this year but warned against implementing them too quickly until inflation shows clearer signs of easing.
Technical Analysis: USD/INR stays above key support
USD/INR trades close to 91.20 and maintains a mild bullish outlook as the pair holds above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which currently acts as immediate support near 90.94.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching 60, indicating positive momentum but not an overbought condition.
If the pair falls below 90.94, the next supports are located near 90.58 and 90.15. On the upside, resistance appears at 91.35, followed by a stronger barrier near 91.66.
