The Indian Rupee (INR) was largely unchanged against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, with the USD/INR pair hovering near the 91.00 mark. Traders remained cautious ahead of the upcoming nuclear negotiations between the United States and Iran scheduled for Thursday, as well as India’s fourth-quarter GDP figures due on Friday.
Market participants are closely watching the outcome of the US-Iran discussions because it could directly influence global oil prices. Countries that depend heavily on imported crude oil, such as India, often see their currencies react quickly to any movement in energy prices.
Crude prices stayed firm amid ongoing tensions over Iran’s nuclear program. Washington has urged Tehran to abandon its nuclear ambitions, while Iran has resisted these demands. US President Donald Trump also warned that military action could be considered if Iran refuses to compromise, stating on Monday that failure to reach an agreement would have serious consequences for the country.
If negotiations fail, concerns about disruptions in global oil supply could intensify, potentially driving oil prices higher — a development that would likely pressure the Indian Rupee.
India’s Q4 GDP report, due Friday, is expected to show the economy growing at an annual rate of around 7.2%, slower than the 8.2% expansion recorded in the third quarter of 2025.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar softened slightly after President Trump delivered a lengthy State of the Union address. During the speech, he highlighted economic achievements, defended tariffs as a major contributor to growth, promoted tax cuts, criticized the Supreme Court’s ruling against his tariff policy, and praised actions related to Venezuela.
At the time of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the Greenback against six major currencies, was down about 0.2% near 97.65.
Overall, the Dollar remains stable as investors expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged in its March and April meetings. Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target reduces the likelihood of near-term policy adjustments.
Technical Analysis: USD/INR holds above 20-day EMA
USD/INR continues to trade around 91.00 and remains slightly above its 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). This keeps a mild bullish tone intact, although upward momentum is limited. Price action has stabilized following the early-month rally, and the flattening EMA suggests consolidation rather than a clear reversal.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is moving within the 40–60 range, indicating reduced volatility and a neutral trend.
Immediate support is seen near the 20-day EMA around 90.94. A drop below this level could push the pair toward 90.58 and then the February 3 low near 90.15. On the upside, resistance appears at 91.35, followed by 91.66.
